Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
